09 Years Of Domestic Sales Will Not Be Optimistic.

However, it can not be seen that the trend of declining growth in clothing consumption is reversed.

The increase of consumption growth is mainly due to the promotion of business promotion activities.

At the end of 08, the discount start time of major shopping malls was earlier than that of previous years, and the time span and promotion intensity were larger than those of previous years.

This sacrifice profit space in exchange for sales scale growth mode, in the long run is unsustainable.

And large discounts often stimulate consumers to spend ahead of schedule, and consumption in 09 years may be less optimistic.

According to our observation and understanding, in the terminal sale of clothing, inventory and discount sales are very serious.

Most of the brand clothing enterprises listed on A share adopt the franchise mode, organize the production according to the franchisee's order, and the products are bought by the franchisee at the agreed price.

Therefore, inventory backlog and discount sales do not directly affect the company, but the impact on franchisees is direct and heavy.

If the franchisee's interests are not guaranteed, the enthusiasm of the shop will be reduced, the quantity of the stock will be reduced, and the purchase price will also be lowered as far as possible.

At present, A brand clothing enterprises are mainly exogenous growth (open shop) growth, in this case, the growth rate and profitability will be a certain impact.

In addition, compared with similar enterprises listed in Hongkong and overseas, the valuation of A brand clothing enterprises is obviously high, and the premium has further expanded after a rise in the previous period.

Based on the above reasons, we will reduce the ratings of the three companies from seven wolves, wedding birds and Mei Bang costumes from "overweight" to "cautious Holdings".